Monte Carlo for what you actually hold
Every path your shares could take,
and how likely each one is.
Monte simulates millions of futures for your stock, crypto or pre-IPO shares and reads you the spread: the floor, the median, the long shot, and what you'd keep after tax. He'll also tell you, plainly, what the numbers can't say.
Invite-only · free while in beta
How it works
Three steps from a ticker to the odds
Bring your positions
Type a ticker, import a broker or Shareworks file, or connect Coinbase with a view-only key. Lots, dates and lock-ups come with it.
Monte fans out the futures
Millions of paths from three models that disagree on purpose, with your lock-up releases and sell dates on the timeline.
Read the odds, after tax
The floor, the median and the long shot, the chance you finish above today, and what you'd actually keep.
What's inside
Built for real positions, not textbook ones
Scenario odds
Three views of the future, side by side
Bearish, neutral and balanced models run on the same paths. Each one gives you the range, the median and the chance you finish above today, so you can see how much the answer depends on the assumptions.
- P5 to P95 range for every sell date
- Log-scale fan chart you can zoom
- Plain-English read from Monte, the advisor
Sell in pieces
Spread the sale, keep more of it
Sell a quarter at a time, monthly or on your own dates. Monte splits your lots first-in-first-out, prices each sale on its own day and runs the tax brackets, then shows the after-tax total against selling everything at once.
- Long- vs short-term split per sale
- Federal brackets, NIIT and California
- Path-by-path comparison with one big sale
Your positions
Lock-ups, lots and linked accounts in one place
Import Shareworks lock-up and release history, broker CSVs, or connect Coinbase with a view-only key that re-syncs nightly. Private shares get a price you set. Company lock-up schedules are shared, so everyone at the same company sees the same dates.
- IPO lock-up release schedules
- Coinbase sync, rebuilt FIFO from history
- Private holdings from Carta and the like
Research
Backtests that don't peek at the answer
Walk-forward testing picks each year's settings using only earlier years, charges fees, spread and yearly tax, and holds the strategy to the worst drop you set. Then paper-trade it on prices it hasn't seen.
- Strategies: hold, rebalance, volatility target, trend
- Deflated Sharpe ratio across every variant tried
- Paper trading with an expected band
Copilot
Trade ideas that pay for themselves, or don't show up
Copilot looks at your Coinbase lots and proposes tax-loss harvests, rebalances, profit ladders and dip buys, but only when the tax saved or the edge beats the fees. You approve each one. Per-coin rules let you mark a coin buy-only or hands-off.
- Checks the cost of every trade against its benefit
- Per-order and per-day limits enforced on the server
- Nothing is placed without your approval
Honest by design
Scenario mathematics, not predictions
Shows the uncertainty
The gap between the bearish and balanced views is real. Monte draws it rather than averaging it away.
Grades itself
Every run logs its bands. When reality arrives, Monte scores whether it landed where he said.
No momentum fairy tales
Early price action barely predicts anything, and Monte won't pretend otherwise.
You stay in control
Keys are view-only or approval-only, stored encrypted. Nothing trades without your click.
Know the odds before you sell.
Monte is invite-only while in beta. Request access and you'll get an email as soon as you're approved.